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I can’t speak for other states, but as soon as hospital admissions had been going down for two weeks, NJ started relaxing. We’re doing it slowly, so we can see whether the problem starts coming back. But I don’t think there’s been any moving of goalposts. there was actually a second purpose of...

NJ uses primarily hospital admissions for Covid. It's not subject to the odd variations of testing, reacts faster than deaths, and is connected with the actual problem, which is possible overload of hospitals. Unfortunately these numbers aren't widely reported for states other than NJ.

Yes, but NYT uses lots of data sources, not just official State totals. They attempt to get only actual cases, including "probable" where possible, but not antibody tests. Even if states don't include antibody tests, testing is ramping up, so you'd expect that tests would be increasing. That's...

On the original topic, cases and deaths in a Georgia have started to creep up. As long as it doesn’t go too far that may be acceptable, but it will take weeks to know for sure. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/georgia-coronavirus-cases.html

In NJ patients are returned from hospitals to their nursing home, but only if the homes can keep them separate. If not they have to be moved to a home that can do that. Are NY and PA doing the same?

In a world where we don’t know who has it, singing is dangerous. Of course its not inherently dangerous, and it will eventually be fine. But not now. i don’t think bus drivers and prison guards are wearing n95 masks. Just surgical masks, which are now pretty widely available.

It is looking increasingly like masks are important. There's new experimental evidence. There's any intriguing evidence from New York. They have been doing a lot of testing. They've found the the infection rate among front-line people -- hospital workers, bus drivers, prison guards -- is *less*...

The IHME model has been consistently low. It has tended to show deaths decreasing rapidly starting the next day after the model was done, when many states remained at the peak for a while.

I don’t think there’s any doubt that the decrease will slow, and some areas will see spikes. It’s less clear that the overall effect will be unacceptable. I think even the slow pace of reopening in NJ is slowing our decrease. That doesn’t mean I’m opposed. I’d like to see more specifics from the...

Electronic. I lost my old one and had to buy a new one. I don't think they make the mercury ones anymore.

I would argue that from an economic point of view, the best approach is a slow opening, putting distancing rules in place for each area. They will start out fairly serious, but they'll make people feel safe. Then as confidence builds, slowly relax.

Just about all areas are in the process of opening up. The trick now is to set up sufficient rules to keep us out of trouble in the future, while letting most activity continue. It's a bit odd that the war would happen at the point where opening is already happening. I can't help wondering...

Here’s an article summarizing early data from states that are reopening. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/13/whats-happening-states-that-reopened-their-economies-its-complicated/. infections have stayed roughly constant, while they have gone down in states that have remained...

The reason presumptive deaths are included is that many people who die aren't tested. They're counting people whose symptoms suggest to a doctor that they had COVID. One of the ways China hid the epidemic for a while was by reporting the final cause of death, which was often pneumonia...

There's a cross-check on fatality numbers from "excess deaths." That is, compare death statistics with what they are in other years. Those comparisons suggest that the official Covid death numbers are a bit too low.

Just to clarify: 1 million was optimistic if no controls were done. With controls, models showed around 100,000 though the summer. The lowest figure I saw was 70,000. That was from the IHME model during a fairly brief period. We're now a bit over 80,000 dead. The IHME model is now showing...

I think he's nonchalant because everyone around him is tested daily. I just found this out. Everyone in the West Wing is tested weekly, and those with contact with him daily. When he goes on a trip, those who will have contact with him are tested right beforehand. (They're using equipment that...

Here's a summary of all the states that are reopening, with graphs of their cases. Many, maybe even most, have cases at a plateau but not going down. Health experts would like to see the cases going down, but many states may think it's OK as long as they stay constant and don't start going up a...

Personally I think the whole controversy over limited atonement is silly. Pretty much everyone who isn't a universalist (which I am on even-numbered days) agrees that Christ's sacrifice is sufficient for everyone, but is effective only for those with faith. Whether you choose to say he died for...

By the way, I think it's fine to start relaxing outside the urban areas. I just don't like to see this accompanied by conspiracy theory.