Realistic Peace in Ukraine

[Lanman87]

It is looking more and more that Ukraine is unwinnable for either side. It has basically turned in to WWI trench warfare except instead of artillery they are using drones.

What is going to have to happen for the war to end?

 

[Josiah]

I'm a ZERO expert on this subject, so I'm just "taking in my hat" (whatever the origin of that saying)....

Two things come to my (mostly ignorant) mind on this...

1. It seems to ME that Russia is doing JUST ENOUGH to keep the war going... wearing out the NATO support for Ukraine, hoping to win simply by keeping it up long enough to get whatever it wants. Russia has never been the military power it has claimed but clearly it COULD quickly win this (heck the mere hint of using nukes would do it) but this is the slowest, mildest war I've ever seen. Russia seems to be dragging it out.... and already the USA is complaining about the HUGE, HUGE amount of money we're pouring into this.

2. Vietnam was before my time but every time the Ukraine war comes up, I think of the Vietnam war. A corrupt nation that America (and some other countries) poured into it HUGE amounts of money and blood - all in the name of reigning in China and Russia. It went on and on and on and on, the cost HUGE on every front, never actually winning until finally the Viet Cong wore us out and easily took the country (now it's a major trading partner, we get LOTS of stuff from there - go figure). Did we learn anything from the Vietnam War?

I have no suggestion as to what to do.... I just suspect Russia will win whatever it wants to win simply by dragging this out and wearing us out, draining finances and support.



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[Albion]

It is looking more and more that Ukraine is unwinnable for either side. It has basically turned in to WWI trench warfare except instead of artillery they are using drones.

What is going to have to happen for the war to end?

A negotiated settlement in which Ukraine cedes most of the land currently occupied by the Russians might be possible, except that Ukraine appears determined not to go for that. It would mean a loss of critical land and resources to an aggressor nation, although it would mean the survival of Ukraine as an independent nation. But for how long? It's not difficult to appreciate Ukraine's resolve, even while the odds are against her.

The idea that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia is far fetched. She's not getting enough weaponry from the West to have a chance of turning the war in her favor and, meanwhile, Russia has almost unlimited manpower, in contrast to Ukraine which is now stretched very thin in that regard.

 

[Lanman87]

A negotiated settlement in which Ukraine cedes most of the land currently occupied by the Russians might be possible, except that Ukraine appears determined not to go for that. It would mean a loss of critical land and resources to an aggressor nation, although it would mean the survival of Ukraine as an independent nation. But for how long? It's not difficult to appreciate Ukraine's resolve, even while the odds are against her.

The idea that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia is far fetched. She's not getting enough weaponry from the West to have a chance of turning the war in her favor and, meanwhile, Russia has almost unlimited manpower, in contrast to Ukraine which is now stretched very thin in that regard.

I agree that Ukraine is going to have to give up something. Eventually either the West is going to have to join the war (not likely) or the West is going to tire of financing Ukraine (more likely) or even worse, Ukraine runs out of men of fighting age and simply collapses.

I would tell Ukraine that they would have to give up all claims to the Crimea. Then I would try to convince Russia to go back to the original Russian border. Then I would propose that the areas that Russia has claimed would hold a referendum in 3 years to determine if they stay in Ukraine or move to Russia. I would put the U.N. in charge of the referendum and probably U.N. peacekeepers in the area until the referendum is over and whichever side won is in place.

I would also fast track Ukraine into NATO once the war is over to keep Russia from attacking them again if the referendum goes against them.

I don't think either would go for anything like that, at least not right now. But this can't go on forever.

 

[tango]

It seems to me like another case of asymmetric warfare.

We've seen it in the Middle East, where the West fires a cruise missile worth millions into the desert where it blows up a tent and a couple of camels. In response the enemy fighters leave a roadside IED botched out of a salvaged land mine that takes out an expensive vehicle and causes severe injuries to western personnel, causing further logistical strain on medical facilities not to mention the obvious human cost of the injuries and possible deaths.

In the Ukraine war it seems Russia can flood the battlefield with seemingly unlimited boots on the ground, even knowing many of them will never return home. The West seems to have largely lost the willingness to respond in kind, which means something else needs to halt the tide of wave after wave of expendable troops.

It doesn't help when Ukraine isn't allowed to use western weapons to strike inside Russia. It also doesn't help when the same people who protest in cities at the accidental death of a few Palestinian children at the hands of Israeli soldiers are largely silent when Russia causes multiple deaths in a hospital.

 

[Lanman87]

I saw that F-16's are now being delivered to Ukraine. I don't know why anyone expects a 50 year old fighter that is being phased out of the US Military to be a difference maker. Particularly with pilots who have had a few months of training. I also doubt the F-16's they are getting have the latest electronics.

 

[Ammi]

I think this war will end when the white house is occupied by someone who wants it to end. After all, that's who started it.