Nikki Haley's next move

[Lanman87]

Nikki Haley is not going to win the nomination for the Republicans. However, she has proven herself to be a very good campaigner as well as being intelligent and well spoken. Getting 40% against Trump in any race is an accomplishment considering how devoted Trump supporters are. She doesn't have the charisma of a Ronald Reagan but she is a better speaker than either Bush.

I think she is staying in the race so she will have the most delegates other than Trump at the convention. If Trump drops out for some reason, or is forced out, then she will have the most leverage at the convention.

Regardless of what happens, has she positioned herself as the front runner in 4 years? I think DeSantis was a dud and doesn't like campaigning so I doubt he runs again. Tim Scott may run again in four years, maybe Ted Cruz and Rubio go for it again. But Haley now has the organization on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire and name recognition is all the early states.

Also, I don't think Trump will win in November. His followers love him. Everyone else either can't stand him or is lukewarm toward him. And he does more to energize the Democrats than any Republican in history.

Plus, I do believe vote mining is going on using mail in ballots in democratic leaning districts, so any Republican will have to get get 52 or 53 percent of the vote to overcome the vote mining in those districts.

 

[Albion]

Nikki Haley is not going to win the nomination for the Republicans. However, she has proven herself to be a very good campaigner as well as being intelligent and well spoken. Getting 40% against Trump in any race is an accomplishment considering how devoted Trump supporters are.

Well now, she only got about 1/4 of the votes cast by Republicans. And the primary, after all, is about who gets the Republican Party nomination.

Those Democrats who voted for Haley were free to do so only because there was no contest on the Democratic Party side.

She doesn't have the charisma of a Ronald Reagan but she is a better speaker than either Bush.

If it were speaking ability that determined the result, I'd be inclined to agree. In her case, however, the fact is that she is a flip-flopper on the issues and this is becoming well-known. That certainly doesn't describe Ronald Reagan and most other Republican candidates of recent memory.

I think she is staying in the race so she will have the most delegates other than Trump at the convention. If Trump drops out for some reason, or is forced out, then she will have the most leverage at the convention.

After all is said and done, there is not much of a precedent for a candidate who never wins a primary election anywhere to take the national nominating convention by storm.

Regardless of what happens, has she positioned herself as the front runner in 4 years?

No, there'll be someone else who is a fresh face.

Also, I don't think Trump will win in November. His followers love him. Everyone else either can't stand him or is lukewarm toward him. And he does more to energize the Democrats than any Republican in history.

Plus, I do believe vote mining is going on using mail in ballots in democratic leaning districts, so any Republican will have to get get 52 or 53 percent of the vote to overcome the vote mining in those districts.

 

[Lanman87]

After all is said and done, there is not much of a precedent for a candidate who never wins a primary election anywhere to take the national nominating convention by storm.

If something happens to Trump then the convention can pick whoever it wants. Nobody will have won any primary. If she has the most delegates then she will have some leverage, at least initially. Other candidates will have to convince her delegates to vote for them. If I remember the rules correctly they are bound to her in the first vote but then can switch to another person in later votes. If she can hold her delegates then she has fewer Trump delegates to convince to vote for her.

It would be interesting to see they would pick. DeSantis, even though he ran a terrible campaign. Hailey, who ran an upstart campaign but many view as not "Republican enough" but would have a great shot at winning the general election precisely because independents view her as a "safe Republican". Tim Scott, just because a conservative African American is a Democrats worst nightmare. Some wildcard that hasn't ever been mentioned???

 

[Albion]

If something happens to Trump then the convention can pick whoever it wants. Nobody will have won any primary. If she has the most delegates then she will have some leverage, at least initially. Other candidates will have to convince her delegates to vote for them. If I remember the rules correctly they are bound to her in the first vote but then can switch to another person in later votes. If she can hold her delegates then she has fewer Trump delegates to convince to vote for her.

I don't disagree with that, but the issue I was responding to concerned the likelihood that a candidate who had never won any primaries would have much leverage in the case of the events you have in mind.

That's not nearly as likely as that the convention would turn to some compromise candidate who is considered a good vote-getter in preference to one who had not received the votes of the majority of GOP voters in any (or almost any) state convention or primary.

It would be interesting to see they would pick. DeSantis, even though he ran a terrible campaign. Hailey, who ran an upstart campaign but many view as not "Republican enough" but would have a great shot at winning the general election precisely because independents view her as a "safe Republican".

Doesn't that scenario presume that Haley would hold the support of all the Trump Republicans?

While there's a lot of guessing involved in what we are discussing, I think that this idea of Haley then becoming the alternate or second choice of Republican delegates--and Republican voters afterwards--is unlikely to say the least. In addition, if she now goes ahead and runs in all the primaries that are scheduled in the months ahead, she will necessarily become the anti-Trump candidate, not just one among a number of contenders for the nomination.

 

[Lanman87]

Doesn't that scenario presume that Haley would hold the support of all the Trump Republicans?

There are a lot of never Trump republicans and I believe most Trump supports will vote for whoever is the Republican Pick. Just as most democrats will vote for Biden or whoever they end up with.

The best candidates in the general election can do two things. Turn out the your party and attract those who vote for personality, likeability, and who makes them "feel" the best. That is why Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both had easy elections. Their party loved them and the "independents" liked them. They can also do a third thing, and that is be likeable/agreeable enough that the rank and file of the opposing party aren't fired up enough to work to have them defeated. Part of Trumps problem, and to a lessor extent Biden's, is that the rank and file of the opposing party not only disagree with them, that can't stand them. That is always true to some extent but the hatred for Trump takes it to another level.

Neither Trump or Biden inspire much confidence in the "feelings" vote. I think anyone other than Biden would wipe the floor with Trump and anyone other than Trump would wipe the floor with Biden.

 

[Albion]

There are a lot of never Trump republicans and I believe most Trump supports will vote for whoever is the Republican Pick. Just as most democrats will vote for Biden or whoever they end up with.

Well, sure. There are indeed people of every conceivable profile during almost every election campaign, but the 'Never Trump' Republicans are already in Haley's camp since they have no other candidate left, and I seriously doubt that very many Trump delegates to the national convention would go over to Haley in preference to some conservative (of which there are many who might step forward).

Soooo, I still think it much more likely that some conservative Republican such as DeSantis or one other who has a following but hadn't entered any of the primaries would be the choice.

The best candidates in the general election can do two things. Turn out the your party and attract those who vote for personality, likeability, and who makes them "feel" the best. That is why Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both had easy elections. Their party loved them and the "independents" liked them.

The Party certainly does not like Haley at the moment and it's getting worse every time she denounces or ridicules Trump. Simply refusing to accept the inevitable and drop out of the race, thus saving the Party from unnecessary expense and controversy, is already bringing Haley criticism from the national chairperson and most of the other people who themselves had been candidates until recent days.

 

[Josiah]

I've NEVER understood the appeal of Trump.... and the extreme personal following of HIM. Seems almost scary to me.

Now, I DO understand (and mostly agree) with his views, policies and generally his actions seen during his 4 years in office. On issues, absolutely. On HIM, no way. So, we see that several Republicans ran this time.... DeSantis, Haley, Scott and others are almost EXACTLY the same on policies and issues, they all are part of the Popularism Movement that Trump made front and center in the Republican Party. The disagreements in terms of policy, issues, views, actions is nearly identical. Just about the only issue dividing them is whether Trump actually won in 2020 - not all the others agree he did. Trump insists he did (but has no evidence of such). So why is Trump trumping (sic) them all? Not issues. Not views. Not policies. It's that TRUMP mania, almost a cult... it's HIM people are so very, very, very passionate about, not his views. And THAT'S what I don't get.

I think the country, politics, and the Republican Party will all be MUCH better off when he's out of the picture, when we get past this Trump Following and get back to issues.



.

 

[Albion]

I wouldn't call contending for the nomination for president, in either party, a mania. It's hard work and it gets harder when some of the other challengers start denouncing you in a personal way.

But that aside, it appears that there are several reasons why people are so supportive of Trump. For one, he talks like an ordinary American rather than like some carefully rehearsed guy reciting what has been written for him by a think tank. It's refreshing, even if most of these people will admit that he goes overboard at times.

Second, his support has soared since the opposition party went to extremes to frame him for 90+ felonies, after two impeachments and the January 6 version of the Reichstag Fire. The average American knows that it's all politics and they naturally tend to back the victim of such an injustice.. Had they simply left him alone and/or treated Trump as nothing more than yesterday's news, I am certain that he would not be enjoying the support he currently enjoys.

And third, the country is in such terrible shape after three years of the current administration that the comparison with the better days, both in foreign and domestic policy, is powerful. That's when Trump was president. No other Republican candidate is in the position of saying that he or she did a better job as president than what he have now.

 

[prism]

Nikki will have to drop out if she can’t pull it off in her home state..So. Carolina..next stop.
Big $$$ will drop off.

 

[Lees]

Nikki Haley, or 'Nimrata Nikki Randha' her given Indian Sikh name, hopes to do well in her home state of South Carolina. I'm not so sure she will. She vacillates with the political winds blowing.

And she pushed for the removal of the Confederate flag in the South Carolina capitol. Of course it was done to appease other 'people of color' over the mass shooting that occurred. She wasn't always opposed but a so called picture of the shooter in the past with a Confederate flag, changed her mind, she said. In so doing she vilified the Confederate flag as evil. It was a good political move at the time. And politicians do what politicians do.

The flag of the Ku Klux Klan is the American flag. Yet I don't hear of anyone wanting to take it down. Or, the protests of Jan. 6 saw American flags everywhere. But no move by Democrats or liberals or NAACP to take it down. It just wouldn't be a good political move. No, Haley moved with the political winds to do what would benefit her political career.

She was raised Sikh, but then 'converted' to Christianity. Yet if you read about her 'Christianity' it has the appearance of another good political move. Of course she is not alone in that. It provides political hay for many.

But South Carolina has many evangelical Bible believing Christians who question her Sikh/Christian faith. And many South Carolinians also remember that Haley removed the Confederate flag from the capitol. So, again, I'm not so sure, just because it's Haley's home state, that she should expect a win.

My opinion.

Lees

 

[tango]

I suppose that getting through the primaries is the biggest challenge, and the impact of independent voters, floating voters and moderate Democrats who are unhappy at the thought of another Biden/Harris ticket will most likely be limited there.

However much the more hardcore Republicans dislike the removal of the Confederate flag it's hard to see them voting Biden/Harris in preference to Haley/whoever. The independent and floating voters may or may not care about flags as much as they care about inflation and the problem of wokeness. Moderate Democrats might be unhappy enough to vote against Biden, in which case removing the Confederate flags might count as a positive point for Haley.

All assuming she can get through the primaries. Which are looking more like Trump is going to storm through again, so the question is likely to be the extent to which people who dislike Trump would rather have him back in the White House than give Biden/Harris another term.

 

[Lees]

I think Trump is in a very dangerous place at this time. It does appear he is going to win the nomination. But the Federal govt. the FBI, the Democrats, the liberals, hate him. And it's my opinion that they are not going to let him win. They will stop him one way or another. They have tried to use the legal system, the media, but the American people are not fooled.

Now the media tries to paint Trump as representing evil Authoritarianism verses good old Democracy which is upheld by the Democrat liberals. And those who follow and vote for Trump are pictured as fools who want to follow a strong man dictatorship.

My point is, they are not going to let Trump win. They will stop him, whatever it takes. No doubt they will try by undermining the voting process. Perhaps all these illegals will be given a right to vote by the Democrats, to insure more votes. But if that doesn't seem to be working, then I think Trump is in a very dangerous position.

Remember George Wallace. He was going great guns as a third party candidate. Well, he was shot up enough so he was invalid the rest of his life. And I often wonder about John and Robert Kennedy.

So, who is the real Authoritarian dictatorship? Seems to me it is the democrats who have done everything they can to stifle Trump during his presidency, and then continue to find something on him to stop him. The real fools are those who think a Democracy cannot be a dictatorship. It will lead to a dictatorial rule by the masses. Which is why the writers of the Constitution did not want a Democracy. They wanted a Republican form of government. A government by representation. Liberals always want the mass vote of America. Not the Representational vote.

And those who Trump represents are classified as evil by the Democrats and liberals who control the media. Trump better watch his back at this time.

My opinion.

Lees

 

[NewCreation435]

Nikki Haley is not going to win the nomination for the Republicans. However, she has proven herself to be a very good campaigner as well as being intelligent and well spoken. Getting 40% against Trump in any race is an accomplishment considering how devoted Trump supporters are. She doesn't have the charisma of a Ronald Reagan but she is a better speaker than either Bush.

I think she is staying in the race so she will have the most delegates other than Trump at the convention. If Trump drops out for some reason, or is forced out, then she will have the most leverage at the convention.

Regardless of what happens, has she positioned herself as the front runner in 4 years? I think DeSantis was a dud and doesn't like campaigning so I doubt he runs again. Tim Scott may run again in four years, maybe Ted Cruz and Rubio go for it again. But Haley now has the organization on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire and name recognition is all the early states.

Also, I don't think Trump will win in November. His followers love him. Everyone else either can't stand him or is lukewarm toward him. And he does more to energize the Democrats than any Republican in history.

Plus, I do believe vote mining is going on using mail in ballots in democratic leaning districts, so any Republican will have to get get 52 or 53 percent of the vote to overcome the vote mining in those districts.

So, you think it is well spoken to say that America has never been a racist country? Does the name Jim Crow mean anything to you?

She could always change to an independent candidate. Though I am not sure if that would help Trump or Biden.

 

[Lees]

So, you think it is well spoken to say that America has never been a racist country? Does the name Jim Crow mean anything to you?

She could always change to an independent candidate. Though I am not sure if that would help Trump or Biden.

In this, your response to Lanman87's post, are your questions because of Tim Scott and Ted Cruz? I don't see the purpose of your questions.

Lees

 

[Lanman87]

So, you think it is well spoken to say that America has never been a racist country? Does the name Jim Crow mean anything to you?

Not sure what you are getting at. A person can be well spoken and still say stupid things. Being well spoken means that she is a good communicator, doesn't mumble, isn't boring, and articulates her message well. It doesn't mean that her message is correct or always right.

All candidates say stupid things. Haley doesn't come off as mean, angry, petty, and juvenile like Trump does and she doesn't seem like a senile old man like Biden does. For that matter neither did any of the other Republicans who ran. Except maybe Vivek Ramaswamy.

As a lifelong republican it just bothers me that our candidate acts like a spoiled child who hasn't gotten his way.

 

[Albion]

She could always change to an independent candidate. Though I am not sure if that would help Trump or Biden.

Hard to say, but the way things seem to be going, this is likely to be a banner year for independent candidacies.

There's Joe Manchin or one of several other people rumored to be seeking the "No Labels" Party nomination; Jill Stein has come back from her run on the Green Party ticket in 2016 to give it another try; Cornel West is the candidate of several different parties (depending on which state we're looking at), and there's whoever the Libertarian Party and the Constitution Party choose as their respective nominees. (Plus, there are several others who get no media coverage and will be on only a couple of state ballots).

 

[Lees]

As a lifelong republican it just bothers me that our candidate acts like a spoiled child who hasn't gotten his way.

You say 'our candidate'. So is Trump your candidate?

Trump has been under attack by the liberal left, and democrats since before 2016 when he declared his intention to run for president. And it continues to this day. I don't believe that is the same as a 'spoiled child'.

Your analogy of Trump likened to a 'spoiled child' is lame. For, based on the truth of what I just said, it would be a case of child abuse. Not of being spoiled.

Lees

 

[Lanman87]

You say 'our candidate'. So is Trump your candidate?

Trump has been under attack by the liberal left, and democrats since before 2016 when he declared his intention to run for president. And it continues to this day. I don't believe that is the same as a 'spoiled child'.

Your analogy of Trump likened to a 'spoiled child' is lame. For, based on the truth of what I just said, it would be a case of child abuse. Not of being spoiled.

Lees

They attack every Republican President. Non have acted like him. Instead of responding to attacks with dignity and class he resorts to childish insults and threats. Some people see his childish insults (like calling NIkki Haley birdbrain or making fun of Chris Christie's weight) ) as a sign of strength, when they are really signs of weakness. A true leader can rise above the insults and attacks and make those doing the insults and attacks look foolish. If you want to win an argument prove you are right on the issues and that you opponent is wrong and how you will make a better more effective leader. He can't do that so he just hurls insults, and his followers lap it up. Hurling insults and threats is not leadership.

I'm a Conservative Republican. I'm Pro-Life, I believe in keeping taxes as low and in limited Federal government, I believe in a strong national defense and believe in freedom of Religion. Being a republican always meant that I stood for something.

Trump is not a republican, he is a cult leader. And he is going to destroy the Republican party. Even if he wins this election his Presidency will be such a dumpster fire that Democrats will run the country for the next 15 years. I for one, don't want to see democrats run the country for the next 15 years.

 

[Lees]

They attack every Republican President. Non have acted like him. Instead of responding to attacks with dignity and class he resorts to childish insults and threats. Some people see his childish insults (like calling NIkki Haley birdbrain or making fun of Chris Christie's weight) ) as a sign of strength, when they are really signs of weakness. A true leader can rise above the insults and attacks and make those doing the insults and attacks look foolish. If you want to win an argument prove you are right on the issues and that you opponent is wrong and how you will make a better more effective leader. He can't do that so he just hurls insults, and his followers lap it up. Hurling insults and threats is not leadership.

I'm a Conservative Republican. I'm Pro-Life, I believe in keeping taxes as low and in limited Federal government, I believe in a strong national defense and believe in freedom of Religion. Being a republican always meant that I stood for something.

Trump is not a republican, he is a cult leader. And he is going to destroy the Republican party. Even if he wins this election his Presidency will be such a dumpster fire that Democrats will run the country for the next 15 years. I for one, don't want to see democrats run the country for the next 15 years.

No, not like they have attacked Trump. The Democrats have resorted to politicizing the judicial system and using it to hinder and stop Trump once he first became president. And they use it now to stop him from being re-elected. That is an abuse of power. And, as I have said, I don't believe they will stop at anything to stop Trump.

Not only do Democrats and liberals demonize Trump, much like what you have done, they also demonize his followers, just like you have done. What you don't realize is that they are demonizing conservatives, period. They, the Democrat Liberals, are the ones who are the upholders of America and freedom, they say. You 'followers' of Trump, conservatives, are for anti-American authoritarianism, they say.

Strange, isn't it. Everyone whines about Trump claiming voter fraud in the last election. Yet it is the 'vote' that everyone fears if it goes to Trump. It is the vote that Democrats have being waging war on for the past eight years. And in calling Trump a 'cult leader' you are doing the same. You fear the vote, those 'followers', those 'deplorables'. Funny, Trumps supporters are not 'constituents' but 'followers' and 'deplorables'. My how you and Democrats love those buzz words. Anything to paint Trump and his supporters as a fringe group.

Were you a Democrat when the South was solid Democrat and conservative? Political parties change directions. Voters respond to that. You say Trump is not a Republican. You're probably right. But he is conservative. Voters respond to that.

Well, I believe you are going to be highly disappointed in the next few years. I doubt there will ever be a conservative president again in America. And you can thank those original 'followers' of the Republican party, and that cult leader, Lincoln, for that. Whose great statue all are to worship at the Lincoln memorial.

My opinion.

Lees

 

[Lanman87]

None of that excuses hurling insults and threats instead of leading.

If we can find a conservative candidate that is a leader, that conservative love and moderates don't fear, and has a temperament that inspires confidence then we can win. If we can find that candidate then democrats can attack and insult all they want and it will not make a difference.
Unfortunately, Trump is not a good leader, moderates fear him, and even his supporters think he has a bad temperament. He has no self discipline and emotionally reacts to every little thing. His is sinking the republican party. Republicans should have a majority in the Senate and at least a 20 seat majority in the house. But Trumps hand picked candidates were terrible and lost in places that a good conservative republican candidate should have easily won.

If there is never a conservative president in America it will not be the democrats fault, it will be Republicans fault for having bad candidates that can't convince voters that conservatism is the best way to run the country.

We need to get back to Reagan's practical conservatism message instead of embracing Trump's Populism. Populism is great at stirring up radical followers, but it is based a person instead of an ideology.