When do we reopen the country back up.

[hobie]

It looks like the next step we will see, will be reopening the country back up and getting everyone back to work. Here is the steps being contemplated in formulating how we do it...
"Politics
Trump Team Preps Plans to Reopen Economy That Depend on Testing

The White House is developing plans to get the U.S. economy back in action that depend on testing far more Americans for the coronavirus than has been possible to date, according to people familiar with the matter.

The effort would likely begin in smaller cities and towns in states that haven?t yet been heavily hit by the virus. Cities such as New York, Detroit, New Orleans and other places the president has described as ?hot spots? would remain shuttered."..https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/trump-team-preps-plans-to-reopen-economy-that-depend-on-testing

 

[Lamb]

I've been keeping track of some of the smaller cities and bigger towns where some of my friends live and there isn't much growth in them compared to the larger cities and their surrounding communities. I feel that opening up the areas where there isn't a lot of spread is a good idea because by now they can handle any load the hospitals might have and that's always been the excuse of why the lock downs were needed.

There are some areas receiving antibody testing for the essential workers so soon they'll be able to return to work without worry. Once we know that there are a great number of people with the antibodies in their systems we'll have more confidence in opening up more businesses.

 

[tango]

This entire issue remains a balance of protecting life and protecting the economy that is life-sustaining.

Of course we want to minimise the number of people this disease kills but at the same time there comes a point where we have to accept that the cost - in terms of economic activity, social breakdown, mental health etc - is also very substantial and has to be balanced.

If we're not careful we're going to create a situation where we might have notionally saved people from dying of the virus but instead left them unemployed and homeless with little chance of their situation ever improving. But not to worry, the feds will send them $1200 eventually, and stat governors can shrug from their mansions and insist "it was for your own good". Too bad for those stuck with abusive parents, abusive spouses, abusive housemates. Too bad for those who relapse into alcoholism because they couldn't get to their support groups. Too bad for a generation of kids whose education was disrupted. Too bad for owners of small businesses who had to close their doors permanently because they weren't allowed to make a living. Too bad for people working in jobs like waiting tables - no work for you now and if your employer has to close their doors the chances are no work for you for some time to come. It was for your own good.

It is truly bizarre to see some of the rules that are notionally in place and how they get ignored. In my area I believe lawn care businesses are deemed "non essential". So I can mow my own lawn but can't pay someone else to mow my lawn. If my mower breaks I can't go to the local lawn care company to buy a replacement but can go to the big box hardware store to buy a replacement. The local lawn care businesses don't seem to have noticed - they still have people out cutting grass. It's not exactly a socially active occupation - from the perspective of someone walking past the only difference between a homeowner cutting their grass and a paid contractor cutting the same grass is the van parked on the driveway.

 

[NewCreation435]

I have also heard that it may be done in stages where those who are at higher risk are continue to stay home while others who are not at high risk can go back to work. From what I have heard the higher risk include the elderly and those with conditions that make them vulnerable like already having compromised immune systems or chronic diseases.

 

[Josiah]

I'm not an MD..... my doctorate is not in biology....

But I wonder if things won't "open" until we have something that cures or prevents this virus. Because it's not going to go away.... and it is a type of virus that doesn't tend to morph or evolve. Isolation can prevent it from reaching YOU as long as you remain in complete isolation - but sooner or later, you will likely leave home or something will arrive at your home with the virus in tow.

.

 

[tango]

I'm not an MD..... my doctorate is not in biology....

But I wonder if things won't "open" until we have something that cures or prevents this virus. Because it's not going to go away.... and it is a type of virus that doesn't tend to morph or evolve. Isolation can prevent it from reaching YOU as long as you remain in complete isolation - but sooner or later, you will likely leave home or something will arrive at your home with the virus in tow.

.

The trouble is that if we keep everything shut down until such time as an effective vaccine is universally available and free of charge (given some can't pay for it, some won't pay for it, some will have various reasons not to have it etc) there won't be much worth opening up for any more.

We're already seeing small businesses closing their doors because they can't work with the ongoing uncertainty. It's easy to imagine more businesses throwing in the towel very soon - I know of one local restaurant that has shut down completely and another that reckons they can't last any longer than the end of April. Each business that shuts down represents lost opportunity, lost employment, and a permanent change to the local landscape.

The last thing anybody needs is for the government to finally be gracious enough to allow us outside only to find the only retailers who survived the apocalypse were Walmart and Amazon. It's not as if there will be much confidence to start new businesses, knowing that your governor can arbitrarily shut you down without compensation on a whim, leaving you stuck with all your liabilities and unable to generate any income at all.

 

[Josiah]

The trouble is that if we keep everything shut down until such time as an effective vaccine is universally available and free of charge (given some can't pay for it, some won't pay for it, some will have various reasons not to have it etc) there won't be much worth opening up for any more.

We're already seeing small businesses closing their doors because they can't work with the ongoing uncertainty. It's easy to imagine more businesses throwing in the towel very soon - I know of one local restaurant that has shut down completely and another that reckons they can't last any longer than the end of April. Each business that shuts down represents lost opportunity, lost employment, and a permanent change to the local landscape.

The last thing anybody needs is for the government to finally be gracious enough to allow us outside only to find the only retailers who survived the apocalypse were Walmart and Amazon. It's not as if there will be much confidence to start new businesses, knowing that your governor can arbitrarily shut you down without compensation on a whim, leaving you stuck with all your liabilities and unable to generate any income at all.

Yup. Thus, the "problem" as I see it.

I think a LOT of people - around the world - are now asking: Okay, we've gone into isolation, the world has been put on hold, we've closed down everything we can....but the virus isn't going to go away, and it's not likely to choose to become less dangerous. So.... what now? It's not likely we can keep this up forever.....

I've noticed... these medical experts (which does not include me)... they talk about how all this closing and isolating helps the hospitals by slowing down the impact. I've personally not heard one of them say ".... and keep people from ever getting this virus." Maybe it just means those who (eventually) get it.... may also get the medical help they need and thus maybe the DEATH toll will be lower? Is the reality that most of us will get this ANYWAY, but maybe be a bit more likely to survive it? I wonder if I'm the only one beginning to ponder that....

Well... MAYBE (I think probably) some medical aid will come. But when? And how effective will it be? And meanwhile, how many will die? What will be left IF this is ever over?

I'm not afraid to die But I like my life and those in it.



- Josiah




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[tango]

I don't want to die either, but it's not as if I can avoid it. The death rate has been pretty steady for centuries, at one per person. It comes to us all sooner or later.

If this process was as simple as "everybody stay home for six weeks and the virus will go away forever" there might be some merit to it. But instead we're rapidly trashing the economy, introducing new government control over all sorts of areas it doesn't belong, setting terriyfing precedents every week, and all for the worthy goal of not getting rid of a virus. Come October it will most likely be back.

 

[hobie]

I've been keeping track of some of the smaller cities and bigger towns where some of my friends live and there isn't much growth in them compared to the larger cities and their surrounding communities. I feel that opening up the areas where there isn't a lot of spread is a good idea because by now they can handle any load the hospitals might have and that's always been the excuse of why the lock downs were needed.

There are some areas receiving antibody testing for the essential workers so soon they'll be able to return to work without worry. Once we know that there are a great number of people with the antibodies in their systems we'll have more confidence in opening up more businesses.

Very true, there is very little going around in the rural, small town and isolate areas. We have 50 percent capacity at the hospitals near us, that means they are ready for double the number of patients, and they are reporting that they have plenty of PPE, ventilators, etc.. So we shall see..

 

[hobie]

Now here is what I would call a attempt to destroy the economy and spread fear and panic, 'yellow journalism' you could say...

"Dow Jones to Plunge 50% Despite Bounce, Research Warns
The Dow Jones and broader stock markets will fall by 50% as the coronavirus pandemic deepens, asset manager Unigestion has warned."

Dow Jones to Plunge 50% Despite Bounce, Research Warns – CCN.com

www.ccn.com

And note, this was not weeks ago..."
Market NewsOpinion
Published:
April 9, 2020 2:06 PM UTC"

 

[Lamb]

Now here is what I would call a attempt to destroy the economy and spread fear and panic, 'yellow journalism' you could say...

"Dow Jones to Plunge 50% Despite Bounce, Research Warns
The Dow Jones and broader stock markets will fall by 50% as the coronavirus pandemic deepens, asset manager Unigestion has warned."

Dow Jones to Plunge 50% Despite Bounce, Research Warns – CCN.com

www.ccn.com

And note, this was not weeks ago..."
Market NewsOpinion
Published:
April 9, 2020 2:06 PM UTC"

Yes, let's predict something to cause drama, right? This is the year I hate the media more and more for how they represent things. Can't we just have objective news with facts and nothing twisted?

 

[tango]

Just another data point demonstrating the "cure" is worse than the problem.

ETA: Doesn't look like the "cure" is going to do us any favors long term either:

Lockdown is the world's biggest psychological experiment - and we will pay the price

People in quarantine are likely to develop symptoms of psychological stress and disorder and the scale of the current COVID-19 lockdown is unprecendented.

www.weforum.org

 

[psalms 91]

It had better open back up the end of April or I fear we may not recover for a very long time. One solution is to charge China for starting this virus the cost of the shutdown and then we would have no more debt.

 

[tango]

It had better open back up the end of April or I fear we may not recover for a very long time. One solution is to charge China for starting this virus the cost of the shutdown and then we would have no more debt.

Except that it's unlikely China would simply hand over the kind of money we'd be talking about.

What would be nice is if we could cut the reliance on China as a manufacturer. But that means reopening American factories, paying American wages, and the price of everything going up. As you say, the longer things stay shut down the less likely it is that "normal" will ever become the new normal again.

 

[psalms 91]

A large portion of our debt is to China so simply not paying that would be the solution

 

[tango]

A large portion of our debt is to China so simply not paying that would be the solution

Perhaps, but that could have huge repercussions if others become reluctant to purchase debt. When the government runs huge deficits it needs to issue bonds regularly and a default in the international bond market (particularly of US government debt, which is used as a benchmark for pricing all sorts of other things) would cause all sorts of nasty consequences in the global financial market.

ETA (hit Post too early!) - since bonds are tradeable instruments it wouldn't work to simpy not repay debt to China - they could sell bonds to some other country. The only way you'd manage what you're describing would be to default on a huge range of bonds, causing a lot of economic pain to other nations while not necessarily hurting China at all.

If only governments (of all persuasions) could learn to live within their means it would at least solve that part of the problem.

 

[hobie]

It had better open back up the end of April or I fear we may not recover for a very long time. One solution is to charge China for starting this virus the cost of the shutdown and then we would have no more debt.

Many small mom and pops will be wiped out if it goes past that, and the ones just hanging on like J. C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, etc.. will drop into bankruptcy.

 

[tango]

Many small mom and pops will be wiped out if it goes past that, and the ones just hanging on like J. C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, etc.. will drop into bankruptcy.

Some area already failing. My favorite local coffee shop has closed permanently because they couldn't see any way through. Another local restaurant is reckoning they can last until the end of April before they have to close their doors for good.

When the precedent is set that the government can shut down a business at a moment's notice, without any compensation, it's hard to see a rush to open new businesses in the aftermath of this.

 

[tango]

In fairness many of the huge stores that are struggling have been the architects of their own demise. When companies play with financial engineering to do things like sell their real estate, then lease it back, and use the lump sum they generated for executive bonuses, dividends, and share buybacks, it's hard to have much sympathy when they struggle to make rent payments.

The small independent stores are the ones that are worthy of help. The ones who have done nothing wrong except try to make a living outside the faceless corporate machine. In so many ways they are the lifeblood of a community, and its as if the response to the virus has been designed to suck the very lifeblood out of smaller communities.

 

[Albion]

The small independent stores are the ones that are worthy of help. The ones who have done nothing wrong except try to make a living outside the faceless corporate machine. In so many ways they are the lifeblood of a community, and its as if the response to the virus has been designed to suck the very lifeblood out of smaller communities.

Well, it's probably academic now, anyway. Chuck and Nancy have made it clear that they aren't about to allow federal assistance to such people and businesses.