Ukraine war: Russians flee to border

[Jazzy]

"Russian men are attempting to leave the country to avoid a military call-up for the Ukraine war.
Queues have formed at border crossings since President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization on Wednesday, which could see 300,000 people summoned to fight."

Full article

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Seems like Putin is dusting off the old WW1 playbook. Throw enough people at Ukraine, hoping the Ukrainians eventually run out of ammo. This mobilization will be a test of production and supply lines for the West just as much as it is for Russia, maybe even more so.

What are your thoughts about this military call-up?

 

[Albion]

Seems like Putin is dusting off the old WW1 playbook. Throw enough people at Ukraine, hoping the Ukrainians eventually run out of ammo. This mobilization will be a test of production and supply lines for the West just as much as it is for Russia, maybe even more so.

What are your thoughts about this military call-up?

It might be more like the WW2 playbook, but that aside, Putin is going for victory regardless of the human cost.

He no doubt expected a quick victory earlier in the year, but that didn't happen, so he's now pulling out all the stops, perhaps mainly in order not to lose credibility with China and Iran. The West will not be able to prevent him from at least detaching parts of Ukraine if this mobilization goes ahead.

 

[tango]

If you're willing to treat your people as little more than cannon fodder the chances are you can overrun just about anything. Short of wide scale bombing of Ukraine, hoping to kill more invaders that Ukrainians, there's only so much that can be done to stop it. If the threat to use nuclear weapons is deemed credible, and the response to ever-rising death tolls among Russian troops is believed to include nuclear strikes, it becomes harder still.

Of course a power that threatens nuclear attacks if it doesn't get what it wants when it wants is one that's either going to gain global dominance based on non-resistance, or faced down regardless of the threat. In a situation like that it seems that the only viable option is to face the threat early rather than let things grow before facing it down. Nevile Chamberlain's "peace in our time" speech comes to mind.

 

[Albion]

In a situation like that it seems that the only viable option is to face the threat early rather than let things grow before facing it down. Nevile Chamberlain's "peace in our time" speech comes to mind.

Unfortunately, facing the threat early rather than late is impossible with the present situation, since Russia's earlier annexation of parts of Georgia and Ukraine were allowed by the West to go ahead, pretty much unchallenged.

 

[Josiah]

1. I WONDER if Putin thought his very threat of invasion would bring Ukraine to it's knees... simply not expecting the resistance that has happened.

2. I WONDER if the resistance hasn't shown that the Russian military is not NEARLY the force everyone expected.

3. I WONDER if Putin is now stuck. He can't save face and give up (admitting Ukraine is a better, stronger nation), he can't surrender, perhaps he can't even negotiate something. But the longer this goes on.... the more unpopular it becomes.... the more evident it is that Putin can't win this...the more likely it is Putin will be sent to pasture.



.

 

[tango]

Unfortunately, facing the threat early rather than late is impossible with the present situation, since Russia's earlier annexation of parts of Georgia and Ukraine were allowed by the West to go ahead, pretty much unchallenged.

Well, obviously we can't go back in time. But starting from here and accepting the limitation that time only moves forward we can still refer to earlier rather than later, even if an ideal situation would be to have done something different many years ago.

 

[tango]

1. I WONDER if Putin thought his very threat of invasion would bring Ukraine to it's knees... simply not expecting the resistance that has happened.

2. I WONDER if the resistance hasn't shown that the Russian military is not NEARLY the force everyone expected.

3. I WONDER if Putin is now stuck. He can't save face and give up (admitting Ukraine is a better, stronger nation), he can't surrender, perhaps he can't even negotiate something. But the longer this goes on.... the more unpopular it becomes.... the more evident it is that Putin can't win this...the more likely it is Putin will be sent to pasture.

It is remarkable that the Russian military has found itself so underprepared. Perhaps the threat of nuclear strikes is simply a bluff in the hope of getting opposition to quieten down and go away.

That said, if I were in Putin's shoes I think I would be spending a lot of time looking over my shoulder these days.

 

[Albion]

Well, obviously we can't go back in time. But starting from here and accepting the limitation that time only moves forward we can still refer to earlier rather than later, even if an ideal situation would be to have done something different many years ago.

Maybe, but since we're dealing with the same nation and the same drive on her part to reconstitute the Russian Empire or, perhaps, the Soviet Union...

all these encroachments--Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine's eastern territories--would seem to be part of the same story.