I’ve been following the news pretty closely, and I’ve read the actual protocol. A couple of comments:
* The church hasn’t agreed. A small but somewhat representative team came up with this plan. A lot of people are supporting it. But there are skeptics. No decision will be made until the General Conference in May.
* Calling it a split is a great oversimplification. To understand it, you have to know that the Methodist Church is an international body. All areas of the world have the ability to adapt the Discipline for local conditions except the US.The proposal is to give the US that ability, too. Once that happens, the US will vote to allow ordination of gays, but probably as “local option,” i.e. with protections so gay pastors and marriage aren’t forced on congregations that don’t want it. The protocol has provisions to allow annual conferences and individual congregations to leave, in both directions. No doubt some will find it intolerable to share a denomination with churches that accept gays, and will leave. But it’s far from clear how many will. Lots of church have mixed views, particularly youth that accept gays. They may prefer to stay in a church that allows both options. But certainly some annual conferences and individual churches will leave.
* The existing UMC will continue, and will allow ordination of gays. Those who leave will form a new church. Pensions will continue, and the group that administers them will be used by both churches. The Wesley Covenant Association has been planning a new, conservative denomination for a couple of years, even after it “won” at the last General Conference. They have the draft of a new Discipline already. I don’t know whether a name has been chosen.
It’s my reading that the WCA doesn’t want the current UMC organization. There are too many churches that are the edge of closing, and too many national organizations that have to be funded. The main proposal that originated from them also had the liberal half inherit the existing UMC.
In my opinion the main thing that could stop it is the African churches. Their leaders have said repeatedly that they don’t want a split. They are growing, and within a few years will control the UMC.
I think the WCA and the most conservative churches are going to leave no matter what happens in May. The African churches will pretty much have to follow them. Staying yoked with a liberal US church when their friends are in a separate church seems unattractive. The proposal allocates $25M to help the WCA start its new denomination, and $37M for various groups, but mostly Africa. If the WCA is going to leave anyway, this gives them an incentive to do it this way.
The proposal requires a constitutional change. That takes a supermajority. So if there's substantial resistance, the Church could be stuck. Particularly since the protocol calls for the new US regional body and the new WCA-led denomination to start functioning during the last half of the May meeting, before the constitutional changes are approved. Personally I think the plan might end up being implemented even if the constitutional amendments fail, because there won't be any choice.