If something happens to Trump???

[Lanman87]

If something happens and Trump can't run. Anything from a health issue to the SCOTUS ruling he can't be on the ballot...

Would you support Robert Kennedy Jr?

The reason I ask is that in a new Quinnipiac Poll that asked both Republicans and Democrats who they would support if it ends up being Haley, Biden with Kennedy and Cornell West as independent/third party candidates 24% of Republicans said they would support Kennedy while 21% of Democrats said they would support Kennedy.

 

[Albion]

If something happens and Trump can't run. Anything from a health issue to the SCOTUS ruling he can't be on the ballot...

Would you support Robert Kennedy Jr?

The reason I ask is that in a new Quinnipiac Poll that asked both Republicans and Democrats who they would support if it ends up being Haley, Biden with Kennedy and Cornell West as independent/third party candidates 24% of Republicans said they would support Kennedy while 21% of Democrats said they would support Kennedy.

So 24% of Republicans would vote for RFK, Jr. in preference to Nikki Haley, huh? That does some damage to your theory that she can win whereas Trump cannot.

On the other hand, 14 polls released in recent weeks asked people who they'd vote for if it were between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, West...and Stein, the Green Party candidate. Only the Quinnipiac Poll had Biden winning, and that was within the statistical margin of error.

 

[Lanman87]

So 24% of Republicans would vote for RFK, Jr. in preference to Nikki Haley, huh? That does some damage to your theory that she can win whereas Trump cannot.

On the other hand, 14 polls released in recent weeks asked people who they'd vote for if it were between Trump, Biden, Kennedy, West...and Stein, the Green Party candidate. Only the Quinnipiac Poll had Biden winning, and that was within the statistical margin of error.

Ya, polls don't really mean anything right now. I think we can all agree on that. There are lots of things that can and will happen between now and November.

However, if by some strange turn of events Nikki Haley got the nomination she would use the convention to try and get the MAGA Republicans on her side. She would probably say we are going to finish what Trump started and finally build the wall or something along those lines in her convention speech. I think that ultimately she would win most of the Trump supporters. Those she lost she would make up for by winning a substantial majority of swing voters. Swing voters are why most polls show her ahead of Biden in a head to head matchup.

If Trump announced tomorrow that he is dropping out (for whatever reason) then chaos would ensue. DeSantis would have his organization up and running in a flash. I would say it would be just as likely for DeSantis to win the nomination as Haley. I think most Trump voters would flock to DeSantis. I certainly think he would win most of Super Tuesday.

It is interesting to speculate about but ultimately it is going to be Trump vs Biden.

What I don't understand is why any MAGA republicans say that they would support Kennedy? I can understand them saying I'm not going to vote for anyone other than Trump, but Kennedy???

 

[Albion]

However, if by some strange turn of events Nikki Haley got the nomination she would use the convention to try and get the MAGA Republicans on her side. She would probably say we are going to finish what Trump started and finally build the wall or something along those lines in her convention speech. I think that ultimately she would win most of the Trump supporters.

This I agree with. But there's another possibility. IF something were to happen to Trump--which you asked about before--would Haley automatically be the beneficiary?

If Trump announced tomorrow that he is dropping out (for whatever reason) then chaos would ensue. DeSantis would have his organization up and running in a flash. I would say it would be just as likely for DeSantis to win the nomination as Haley. I think most Trump voters would flock to DeSantis. I certainly think he would win most of Super Tuesday.

I doubt that "chaos" would ensue, but this would start things over again. It also would matter when, exactly, Trump dropped out.

What I don't understand is why any MAGA republicans say that they would support Kennedy? I can understand them saying I'm not going to vote for anyone other than Trump, but Kennedy???

It's because Kennedy has been outspoken on some particular issues that Libertarians and Conservatives, or at least some of them, feel keenly about. And he's been more effective, persistent, and detailed when addressing these matters than other candidates, even though they'd say they are on the same side when it comes to where they stand.

 

[Josiah]

IMO....

I suspect that if Trump is in jail - he'll be nominated anyway, his supporters simply rejecting the prison term as unfair.

I suspect that if Trump has been ruled ineligible to run, he'll be nominated anyway, his supporters rejecting the court ruling as unfair.

I suspect that if Trump died, he'd be nominated anyway, his supporters insisting the death was staged by liberals and actually he's alive.

I suspect he'll be the Republican nominee. He'll run, he'll loose, he'll scream and whine that actually he won and his supporters will do the same... BUT due to his age, we'll FINALLY be done with him and the Republican Party can get back to issues.



.

 

[Lanman87]

I suspect that if Trump died, he'd be nominated anyway, his supporters insisting the death was staged by liberals and actually he's alive.

That is an interesting point. I can see a scenario where if Trump died MAGA would keep voting for him so he would win the nomination. That way, MAGA could choose the replacement at the convention.

 

[Albion]

IMO....

I suspect that if Trump is in jail - he'll be nominated anyway, his supporters simply rejecting the prison term as unfair.

I suspect that if Trump has been ruled ineligible to run, he'll be nominated anyway, his supporters rejecting the court ruling as unfair.

I suspect that if Trump died, he'd be nominated anyway, his supporters insisting the death was staged by liberals and actually he's alive.

Probably so, but that would owe to a considerable degree to the fact that he HAS been treated unfairly.

The outrage over that and the fact that it is unprecedented in our country's history certainly has made many people who are now in his corner determined not to let our political system become just like the so-called "banana republics" that we used to pity.

 

[Albion]

That is an interesting point. I can see a scenario where if Trump died MAGA would keep voting for him so he would win the nomination. That way, MAGA could choose the replacement at the convention.

"MAGA" will choose the nominee at the convention under every possible scenario. Unless, I suppose, the other party finds a way--and does it quickly--to outlaw the Republican Party itself. They're working on it.

 

[Lanman87]

Probably so, but that would owe to a considerable degree to the fact that he HAS been treated unfairly.

The outrage over that and the fact that it is unprecedented in our country's history certainly has made many people who are now in his corner determined not to let our political system become just like the so-called "banana republics" that we used to pity.

All the lawsuits and charges against Trump was a massive miscalculation by the Democrats. If they had just let him stew in Florida and kept him out of the news then he wouldn't have been able to be "the victim", at least with not as much credibility. With every news story about lawsuits and charges it just makes MAGA angry and it makes swing voters realize that it is political show. (for the most part).

Trump and the democrats seem to bring out the worst in each other.

 

[Albion]

All the lawsuits and charges against Trump was a massive miscalculation by the Democrats. If they had just let him stew in Florida and kept him out of the news then he wouldn't have been able to be "the victim", at least with not as much credibility.

That's no doubt true, but they still think that they might jail him before the November election and this would likely be as effective as letting him simply become "yesterday's news" or the senior statesman of the party, etc. in the way you indicated.

With every news story about lawsuits and charges it just makes MAGA angry and it makes swing voters realize that it is political show.

 

[Lanman87]

"MAGA" will choose the nominee at the convention under every possible scenario. Unless, I suppose, the other party finds a way--and does it quickly--to outlaw the Republican Party itself. They're working on it.

What I mean is that MAGA would reject anyone else on the ballot (DeSantis, Haley, Scott, anyone else that would potentially jump in the race) and purposefully have a brokered convention.

 

[Albion]

What I mean is that MAGA would reject anyone else on the ballot (DeSantis, Haley, Scott, anyone else that would potentially jump in the race) and purposefully have a brokered convention.

That would be unlikely. As I get it, you're speculating on the effect of him dying during the primary season, but in that case the MAGA voters would most probably choose among the remaining candidates (in states which will have a primary this spring). In many cases, those names are already on the primary ballots, even though they'd announced that they are dropping out.

 

[Lanman87]

That would be unlikely. As I get it, you're speculating on the effect of him dying during the primary season, but in that case the MAGA voters would most probably choose among the remaining candidates (in states which will have a primary this spring). In many cases, those names are already on the primary ballots, even though they'd announced that they are dropping out.

I agree it would be unlikely. But if a majority of MAGA voters still voted for Trump, because his name would still be on the ballots, then we would have a brokered convention. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be shocked if that happened, if something happened to Trump. Which is very very unlikely.

My guess is that DeSantis (Trump-lite) would get the majority of Trump votes in something happened to Trump.

 

[Albion]

My guess is that DeSantis (Trump-lite) would get the majority of Trump votes in something happened to Trump.

Seems probable.