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Epidemics grow or fade based on statistics. We don't have to stop all transmission. We need to reduce it enough that R goes below 1.

The CDC disagrees. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html also https://www.thespectrum.com/story/news/2020/11/12/byu-research-supports-effectiveness-mask-wearing-against-covid-19/6264646002/

No, it's not a conspiracy. Leaders are trying to balance opposite considerations. That results in a compromise. It's possible that compromise is a bad idea, but it's the usual outcome. I'm not even sure it's a bad idea. Nowhere else do we act like lives have an infinite value, particularly when...

I do find Gavin‘s actions disgusting. And he’s not the only one. But that doesn’t mean he’s wrong about the threat.

I'm not sure how big an issue that was. The problem is that simply having the virus in you doesn't kill you. What kills you is lung failure, which is pneumonia, or heart failure, which is heart attack. So everyone who dies has what could be regarded as a second condition. Indeed the way the...

The fatality rate is complex. Estimates take into account the fact that not all cases were reported. If you look just at reported cases, you'd get a fatality rate of 2%. Everyone agrees that this is too high. In the Spring the fatality estimate I believed was 0.5% or a bit higher. (Here's the...

Remember, it takes a while for people to die. so deaths go up later. It’s now going up exponentially. We seem on track to have the same death rate as in the Spring. i think a lot of the reason there are more infections is that testing is better now. We didn’t catch as many in the Spring. Indeed...

Depends upon your state. I'm in NJ. Things have gotten worse, but it's not close to the Spring. Our governor is trying to take action based on the actual observed causes of spread, and to minimize impact on other things. We also have a special category of "first amendment protected activities,"...

Her previous statements had expressed concern that women, who often feel they have no choice, were prosecuted, and not pimps, who make money off it, and customers. I’m not sure I support decriminalization, but that seems like a reasonable complaint.

That's OK. I'm not sure whether you're real either.

That's why it's complex. You can't assume that every mistake is disinformation, but you know many of them are. And not all the disinformation is foreign.

Incidentally, the totals being reported from PA also don’t include anything arriving after Election Day. there was another Veritas claim about PA. It will also be irrelevant. That fact has been obvious for a while. The late ballots are counted, but aren’t in the total we’re seeing. Since Biden...

No, but posting it as if it were current could be part of a smart disinformation campaign. Good lies use as much of the truth as possible.

That's the charitable explanation. Might even be true in some cases. But the Russian disinformation hasn't gone away. It's not going to stop with Trump's defeat. They still want to weaken the US any way they can, by sowing discord and distrust. Then we have people like Bannon and QAnon. I think...

The post office has reported separating out ballots and delivering them specially. i think that’s a good thing if you believe all votes should count.

It turns out that Michigan accepts ballots up to a certain time. The postmark doesn’t matter. Thus this would have been an odd kind of fraud. https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/nov/05/allegations-usps-election-fraud-michigan-dont-hold/

I'd like to see more information. Remember, in some locations there were big backlogs. If mail wasn't postmarked the same day it was mailed, they might need to postmark it the previous day. We do know that a fair amount of mail didn't get there when it should have, and it appears that some might...

Sorry. Disinformation at work. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/04/tweets/no-wisconsin-doesnt-have-more-ballots-cast-registe/

Actually the electoral votes so far are consistent with 270towin's concensus, assuming PA goes to Biden. We'll need to wait until they're all in to do a detailed comparison.

Today (Thursday) if Georgia goes to Biden. Friday otherwise.