RCP Average

[Lanman87]

According to Real Clear Politics polling average on 10/1/2024 Harris has a 2.0 lead in the polling average, which is well within the margin of error for pretty much every poll. For context, on Oct 1st 2016 Hillary Clinton had a 2.7 lead in the polling average.

More importantly, Trump is slightly ahead, but within the margin of error in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Trump is behind, but within the margin of error in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.

Of course, Trump (or any Republican) has to get 2% more votes or else mail in ballot harvesting will give Harris the win. If the vote is actually within 1% then the Democrats will be able to print out enough "mail in ballots" to make up the difference.

If someone said I had to bet $100 today on who will win the election I would put the money on Trump.

 

[Lamb]

These polls are driving me crazy because they change daily.

Do you think that this latest catastrophe from Hurricane Helene will play a part in people's decision for voting?

 

[Lanman87]

Do you think that this latest catastrophe from Hurricane Helene will play a part in people's decision for voting?

No, I think for something to make a difference at this point it would have to be something extraordinary. Most people have already decided who they will vote for and those that haven't probably will not vote at all. Very few people make up their mind while standing in line to vote.

What decides close elections is voter turnout. Whichever side is most excited about their candidate usually wins because excited people go vote. Unexcited supporters tend to think "I'm tired, it's not worth it to stand in line after working all day".

 

[Lamb]

No, I think for something to make a difference at this point it would have to be something extraordinary. Most people have already decided who they will vote for and those that haven't probably will not vote at all. Very few people make up their mind while standing in line to vote.

What decides close elections is voter turnout. Whichever side is most excited about their candidate usually wins because excited people go vote. Unexcited supporters tend to think "I'm tired, it's not worth it to stand in line after working all day".

That sounds about right. I know some independents who won't vote because they don't like either candidate.

 

[tango]

I don't really care what polls say at any given point. Back in 2016 it wasn't clear whether Hillary would win by a large margin or an overwhelming margin but then in the poll that mattered the result was very different.

 

[Lamb]

I don't really care what polls say at any given point. Back in 2016 it wasn't clear whether Hillary would win by a large margin or an overwhelming margin but then in the poll that mattered the result was very different.

Back then no one expected Trump to win at all, and everyone woke up to a surprise. Polls can be misrepresented and I think at this point, it's a toss up of who will win.

 

[tango]

Back then no one expected Trump to win at all, and everyone woke up to a surprise. Polls can be misrepresented and I think at this point, it's a toss up of who will win.

That's the thing, nobody expected Trump to win - the discussion was whether Clinton would win by a huge margin or an embarrassing margin. They got it so badly wrong then. Now it seems we've got Trump who a lot of people hate for varying reasons on one side, and Harris who seems to be the ultimate DEI candidate on the other but with the mainstream media plugging her hard.

It's hard to know whether the polls being so close means it's going to be a very close call, whether they got it totally wrong again, or whether a very close poll will inspire one side more than the other side to get out and vote to swing it. Who knows, maybe some of the undecided voters will make the effort.

 

[Lamb]

That's the thing, nobody expected Trump to win - the discussion was whether Clinton would win by a huge margin or an embarrassing margin. They got it so badly wrong then. Now it seems we've got Trump who a lot of people hate for varying reasons on one side, and Harris who seems to be the ultimate DEI candidate on the other but with the mainstream media plugging her hard.

It's hard to know whether the polls being so close means it's going to be a very close call, whether they got it totally wrong again, or whether a very close poll will inspire one side more than the other side to get out and vote to swing it. Who knows, maybe some of the undecided voters will make the effort.

I think you're onto something about using polls to try to influence people.

 

[tango]

I think you're onto something about using polls to try to influence people.

The media shows you what they want you to see...

 

[Lamb]

The media shows you what they want you to see...

Absolutely! To suit their purposes too.