CoronaVirus

[Andrew]

What's the mortality rate at?

Also a friend told me that the government will issue 7k for anyone who would subject themselves to an injection of the virus for research purposes!!

China is densely populated, the number is actually next to none from what I've heard, not even 1 percent, is this just hype?
An incurable disease is bad news but don't more people die from the flue than this?

 

[Lamb]

What's the mortality rate at?

Also a friend told me that the government will issue 7k for anyone who would subject themselves to an injection of the virus for research purposes!!

China is densely populated, the number is actually next to none from what I've heard, not even 1 percent, is this just hype?
An incurable disease is bad news but don't more people die from the flue than this?

I read that more than half of the people in Chinese have been cured of the virus. Another site I saw stated that only 2% that got it have died.

 

[tango]

Figuring a mortality rate is hugely difficult, simply because it's almost impossible to count the number of people who contract the disease. People with serious complications are easy to count but how do you count the people who have it very mildly, figure it's little more than a cold or seasonal flu and don't come forward? And hence if you count the number of people who die divided by the number of known cases you end up with a distorted figure, simply because the number of unknown cases is potentially much larger than believed.

 

[tango]

Most of the articles I've read about it suggest that any given person will probably catch the virus and the overwhelming majority won't have serious symptoms.

 

[Lamb]

The best way to use hand sanitizer or time your hand washing!

 

[NewCreation435]

I have wondered if I should stop going to the gym and just run outside for a while to avoid possibly coming into contact other people who may have this virus. It seems to me that a gym is just a big opportunity with people sweating to spread a virus. I always wipe down the machines before and after I use them, but you never know if the person before you or maybe even a day or two before you was already exposed. What do you all think?

 

[tango]

I have wondered if I should stop going to the gym and just run outside for a while to avoid possibly coming into contact other people who may have this virus. It seems to me that a gym is just a big opportunity with people sweating to spread a virus. I always wipe down the machines before and after I use them, but you never know if the person before you or maybe even a day or two before you was already exposed. What do you all think?

Logically if you're going to do that you should also stop going to the grocery stores because you never know who else has been touching the shopping cart. I think it makes more sense to be concerned about someone coughing or sneezing into their hand and immediately putting their hand back on the handle of the cart, than someone sweating on a bench while lifting weights.

 

[Andrew]

Tom Hanks and his wife have it now!

 

[hedrick]

The possible range for mortality is large, 0.5 to 2% or so. The data isn’t very good, because only people with symptoms are tested in many places.

 

[Lamb]

I was reading an article earlier from a woman who recovered who said she never had the cough or shortness of breath. She had other flu like symptoms though which some news sites are saying doesn't come with the Coronavirus. Tom Hanks and his wife felt tired with body aches so you would think that's just the flu...but they tested positive.

 

[psalms 91]

Yeah to bad people for the most part cant be tested. The most successful countries are the ones doing widespread testing but thanks to our wonderful governemnt that is not possible

 

[Lamb]

Yeah to bad people for the most part cant be tested. The most successful countries are the ones doing widespread testing but thanks to our wonderful governemnt that is not possible

What do you mean? People are getting tested where I live and in one state there is a mobile set up for people who think they might have been exposed.

 

[tango]

Yeah to bad people for the most part cant be tested. The most successful countries are the ones doing widespread testing but thanks to our wonderful governemnt that is not possible

Widespread testing is easier in areas where population density is higher. The entire state of Pennsylvania has a population that's barely 20% of the population of the UK, spread over an area that's probably comparable or larger.

How would you propose to test people, given that people with no symptoms aren't likely to be interested in going forward to be tested and people who think they have a cold are unlikely to want to make a big fuss about it?

 

[tango]

The possible range for mortality is large, 0.5 to 2% or so. The data isn’t very good, because only people with symptoms are tested in many places.

This is a key part of the problem - when many people who contract the virus don't experience anything much different from a regular cold it's hard to see why they would make a fuss. From what I gather some don't experience any symptoms at all. The people howling about how we need more testing would probably be the first to complain if they couldn't see the doctor for three weeks because they were jammed up with endless people fussing over a cold - you know, just to be safe.

Mortality is number of deaths divided by number of cases. It's almost impossible to accurately gauge the number of cases because many cases will never come to light. Therefore it's reasonable to conclude that any estimate of mortality rates is an overestimate. When the mortality rates are analysed based on the age of the patient it skews even further - for those under about 40 the virus is generally nothing to be worried about. For those over 70 or so the mortality rate rises rapidly.

 

[psalms 91]

Interesting to see that now the president is saying drive thru testing, seems like it is going to be widespread

 

[hedrick]

In NJ in order to be tested you must have symptoms and have been in contract with someone confirmed to have it, or you must have severe enough symptoms to be hospitalized.

My colleague took his 22 year old daughter to the hospital last night with pneumonia and fever. They gave her antibiotics and sent her home, so no test. The problem is that now I don't know whether it's safe to be near him.

However I heard that the rules were changed today.

 

[Andrew]

Interesting to see that now the president is saying drive thru testing, seems like it is going to be widespread

What do you mean by that?

 

[psalms 91]

What do you mean by that?

Testing will be widespread

 

[Lamb]

Testing will be widespread

Didn't you just complain that people weren't allowed to get testing who wanted it? The President fixed that. Aren't you pleased?

 

[psalms 91]

I will be when it is reality, so far it isnt. This should not be about politics but rather results or the lack thereof.