2020: Polls Already Busy!

Josiah · Mar 13, 2019

Yup.... we're a long way from November, 2020 but the campaign is clearly underway!

The Dems are lining up in BIG numbers; looks like a very crowded field!!!

No Republican challenge to Trump has materialized, much to the surprise of some. And time is pressing.

In the polls....

Looking at polls from 2019, Trump vs. some "Mystery Democrat" has that unnamed Democrat winning hands down, by a margin of 10 or so in various polls. BUT when it gets down to some NAMED Democrat, that margin narrows.

Trump vs. Biden Emerson puts it as 45 Trump, 55 Biden. Change has it at 45/52. He scores best against Trump.
Trump vs. Warren Emerson puts it at 47 Trump, 53 Warren. Change has it at 46/47
Trump vs. Sanders Emerson 49 Trump, 51 Sanders, change 46/48 (both within the margin of error)
Trump vs. Harris Emerson 49/51, Change 48/46 (both within the margin of error).

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Lamb · Mar 13, 2019

Are those the same polls that predicted Hillary for the win?

MennoSota · Mar 13, 2019

Josiah said:
Yup.... we're a long way from November, 2020 but the campaign is clearly underway!

The Dems are lining up in BIG numbers; looks like a very crowded field!!!

No Republican challenge to Trump has materialized, much to the surprise of some. And time is pressing.

In the polls....

Looking at polls from 2019, Trump vs. some "Mystery Democrat" has that unnamed Democrat winning hands down, by a margin of 10 or so in various polls. BUT when it gets down to some NAMED Democrat, that margin narrows.

Trump vs. Biden Emerson puts it as 45 Trump, 55 Biden. Change has it at 45/52. He scores best against Trump.
Trump vs. Warren Emerson puts it at 47 Trump, 53 Warren. Change has it at 46/47
Trump vs. Sanders Emerson 49 Trump, 51 Sanders, change 46/48 (both within the margin of error)
Trump vs. Harris Emerson 49/51, Change 48/46 (both within the margin of error).

.

If the left nominates a Socialist, the swing vote will turn toward the known incumbent. Socialism is not a centrist position and no matter how bad President Trump is perceived, he won't be perceived as worse than a Socialist.

Josiah · Mar 13, 2019

AT THIS TIME, it seems the one Democrat who actually could challenge Trump is Biden. But he is SO old and "old school" that I find it unlikely he will get anywhere... even if he chooses to run (which I suspect he will)...

SHOCK of SHOCKS, at THIS point (admittedly, so early as to be mostly irrelevant), it seems Trump has a pretty easy run at re-election. Which is probably why no Republican opposition has materialized. But LOTS of things could happen yet.

I agree: What Trump must be hoping for is some RADICAL like Elizabeth Warren or Pamela Harris will get the nod (which I find likely) and be easily defeated. I'm not sure that makes me happy but that's how it seems NOW.

Andrew · Mar 13, 2019

Biden is a child predator, I hope he does run his campaign so he could be exposed to for what he really is.
https://youtu.be/b3ir0GY5Mr0

ImaginaryDay2 · Mar 13, 2019

Barring any competition for Trump from the Republican side, that is

NewCreation435 · Mar 14, 2019

polls at this point are largely irrelevant since it is so long before the election.

TurtleHare · Mar 14, 2019

Josiah said:
Yup.... we're a long way from November, 2020 but the campaign is clearly underway!

The Dems are lining up in BIG numbers; looks like a very crowded field!!!

No Republican challenge to Trump has materialized, much to the surprise of some. And time is pressing.

In the polls....

Looking at polls from 2019, Trump vs. some "Mystery Democrat" has that unnamed Democrat winning hands down, by a margin of 10 or so in various polls. BUT when it gets down to some NAMED Democrat, that margin narrows.

Trump vs. Biden Emerson puts it as 45 Trump, 55 Biden. Change has it at 45/52. He scores best against Trump.
Trump vs. Warren Emerson puts it at 47 Trump, 53 Warren. Change has it at 46/47
Trump vs. Sanders Emerson 49 Trump, 51 Sanders, change 46/48 (both within the margin of error)
Trump vs. Harris Emerson 49/51, Change 48/46 (both within the margin of error).

.

I wouldn't vote for any of them.

psalms 91 · Mar 14, 2019

The polls change all the time and I will see come Nov 2020

tango · Mar 14, 2019

jsimms435 said:
polls at this point are largely irrelevant since it is so long before the election.

Given their track record I wonder if they will ever be relevant again. I remember when the discussion wasn't whether Trump or Clinton would win but whether Clinton would win by a big margin or a huge margin.

Albion · Mar 14, 2019

Josiah said:
AT THIS TIME, it seems the one Democrat who actually could challenge Trump is Biden. But he is SO old and "old school" that I find it unlikely he will get anywhere... even if he chooses to run (which I suspect he will)...

SHOCK of SHOCKS, at THIS point (admittedly, so early as to be mostly irrelevant), it seems Trump has a pretty easy run at re-election. Which is probably why no Republican opposition has materialized. But LOTS of things could happen yet.

I agree: What Trump must be hoping for is some RADICAL like Elizabeth Warren or Pamela Harris will get the nod (which I find likely) and be easily defeated. I'm not sure that makes me happy but that's how it seems NOW.

It seems like the incumbent is always underestimated at this time in the election cycle, but then I ask myself...which state that Trump did not carry last time is he likely to pick up in 2020? I cannot think of one. Against that, there are a number of states that he carried which could go back into the other column. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida for example.

Anyway, and considering that many people share your estimation of Biden, I am surprised that 20 other candidates are content to all run on virtually the same extremist platform. You would think that at least a couple of them would stake out some important policy positions that put distance between them and the crowd.

Tigger · Mar 14, 2019

I can see either Biden or Sanders winning over Trump. We'll really have to see after the primaries to get a clearer picture.

tango · Mar 14, 2019

Tigger said:
I can see either Biden or Sanders winning over Trump. We'll really have to see after the primaries to get a clearer picture.

Hard to know with Sanders. His brand of socialist-style politics seems very popular with the younger crowd but as countries like Venezuela implode the approach demonstrates its flaws. On top of that it's easy to see why younger people are keen to demand free stuff but as soon as they graduate and start working only to get stuck with the bill for someone else's free stuff they see it's not necessarily such a good thing.

The real problem isn't capitalism, it's this curious brand of crony capitalism we've been stuck with. The market doesn't shake out the poor performers, they end up deemed "too big to fail" and get to be reckless because they'll get bailed out before they can fail. The barriers of regulation help keep new entrants to the market out, leaving inefficient players dominant because they have deep pockets and can encourage, if not outright buy, regulations to protect them from too much competition. But so many people look at the way a company protected from competition by regulation hikes prices, argues that "this is the free market at work" and decide they don't like the free market.

Josiah · Mar 14, 2019

Tigger said:
I can see either Biden or Sanders winning over Trump. We'll really have to see after the primaries to get a clearer picture.

I think the problem with Biden is that most Democrats consider him a dinosaur .... not your father's Democrat but your grandpa's Democrat... and he's old.... and he's been out of the loop for ages.... and he has quite a bit of baggage. If he runs (and I suspect he will), I don't think he'll win a single primary. I agree he's likely the Dems most winnable candidate but since when has that mattered to primary voters?

Sanders has much better changes of getting the Dem nomination... while he's as old as Biden, he represents the new Communist/Socialist/Wacho side of the Democrat Party that seems to be taking control - the Green New Deal bunch. Problem for him, there are like 20 running from the Socialist/Communist/Greenie side of the party, women and younger folk and new faces that I think will appeal more to the primary voters.

I'm surprised that NO ONE in the Republican Party is challenging Trump. I kind of thought Romney would... and there are a number of senators and governors who could be strong. It seems all possible challengers think Trump has a lock on renomination if not re-election. I'm surprised, too, that in the polls, no Democrat seems to be viewed as much better than Trump.... with the possible exception of Biden, ALL the Dems are within the margin of error, quite possibly only tied with him... in a country where the Republicans are a real minority and where Trump did not win the popular vote last time. Where is the "TIDAL WAVE" , the REBELLION that the press suggests? Or it simply the Dems seem to have no one that seems better?

And YES, as I noted in the opening post, all this just suggests the mood NOW. Elections can completely turn in the last 2-3 weeks of the campaign...

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Albion · Mar 14, 2019

Concerning Biden, it may all depend on how he presents himself. If he seems the wise senior statesman, then he may appear to be the one for the job. But if he puts his foot in his mouth at every campaign stop as he has a history of having done, then the old fuddy duddy whom history has passed by will probably seem to be his M.O.

tango · Mar 14, 2019

Josiah said:
in a country where the Republicans are a real minority and where Trump did not win the popular vote last time. Where is the "TIDAL WAVE" , the REBELLION that the press suggests? Or it simply the Dems seem to have no one that seems better?

I'm not sure Republicans are a real minority. If you look at voting maps based on how counties voted rather than how states voted the entire country is a vast ocean of red with a few patches of blue. Obviously the patches of blue overlay with places like LA, Seattle, Portland, NYC etc. Even loopy-liberal California is mostly red, when viewed at county level. And, as is often said, that's why we have the Electoral College, to avoid the situation where all a candidate needs is to appeal to a few large cities and vast swathes of the mid-west can rot.

If you look at a lot of social media you'd get the impression the majority leans left, but I suspect that's because the left is clearly more inclined to put their views out there. Maybe the left is also more inclined to go for the idea of virtue signalling whereby they show the world they are on the correct side, while those on the right aren't interested in showing the world anything. As one who would identify as moderate right I typically avoid politics on social media because it seems like trying to have a discussion with a pack of howler monkeys, although with less potential for enlightenment.

Andrew · Mar 14, 2019

tango said:
I'm not sure Republicans are a real minority. If you look at voting maps based on how counties voted rather than how states voted the entire country is a vast ocean of red with a few patches of blue. Obviously the patches of blue overlay with places like LA, Seattle, Portland, NYC etc. Even loopy-liberal California is mostly red, when viewed at county level. And, as is often said, that's why we have the Electoral College, to avoid the situation where all a candidate needs is to appeal to a few large cities and vast swathes of the mid-west can rot.

If you look at a lot of social media you'd get the impression the majority leans left, but I suspect that's because the left is clearly more inclined to put their views out there. Maybe the left is also more inclined to go for the idea of virtue signalling whereby they show the world they are on the correct side, while those on the right aren't interested in showing the world anything. As one who would identify as moderate right I typically avoid politics on social media because it seems like trying to have a discussion with a pack of howler monkeys, although with less potential for enlightenment.

Very true!

Josiah · Mar 14, 2019

As of July 2018....

Democrat: 40%
Republican: 29%
Independent 28%
Other: 3%

Democrats have a 12 million voter registration advantage....

Now, true, because there is a big urban vs. rural/small town split here, there is an oddity whereby it's easier than usual to win and election via the electoral college since small states are more likely to be Republican. But this does not overshadow the enormous voter registration advantage.

tango · Mar 14, 2019

Josiah said:
As of July 2018....

Democrat: 40%
Republican: 29%
Independent 28%
Other: 3%

Democrats have a 12 million voter registration advantage....

Now, true, because there is a big urban vs. rural/small town split here, there is an oddity whereby it's easier than usual to win and election via the electoral college since small states are more likely to be Republican. But this does not overshadow the enormous voter registration advantage.

Those 28% of independents are the ones who could shift it to 68D-29R or 40D-57R, or anything in between. Chances are they aren't going to be impressed with a candidate they see as a bit of a nutjob, so the new trendy "gimme my free stuff" candidates may yet face an uphill struggle. My guess is the independent voters are the ones likely to get stuck with the bill for the free stuff so they'll probably have a very different stance on it.

Andrew · Mar 14, 2019

Trump will most likely win re-election

2020: Polls Already Busy!

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