Is the US headed for a Recession?

[Lamb]

Do you think the US is headed for a Recession? Are we already in one?

 

[NewCreation435]

I think we are headed into one now

 

[Albion]

I guess that, technically, we are not in one at present because the classification requires several quarters to pass in succession during which the factors that define a recession are present.

However, if it were not for that qualification, what the economists are saying about the economy at the present time would indicate that we're already in a recession with a near certainty of more to come.

 

[Castle Church]

We won't really know if we are 2 quarters down until August when the numbers come out from the BEA, but most indicators seem to indicate that we are. Given how the administration and politicians seem to be trying to get out ahead of it and redefine the definition of a recession, I would say that we are.

 

[tango]

If the country isn't technically in a recession it's hard to see how to avoid one.

Interest rates have been so low for so long it's as if the economy can't function without ever-more money sloshing around. From here it seems the options are either to drop interest rates back to zero (or near enough it makes no practical difference) and devalue the currency (i.e. inflation) or hike interest rates to rein in the money supply and cause the economy to contract or potentially crash.

Long term the latter is the best option but politicians aren't known for looking much past the next election cycle.

I shudder to think what the economy would do if interest rates were to be put back to more sensible levels. Back in the early 1980s when Paul Volcker hiked rates to nearly 20% he brought inflation under control. But the country didn't have trillions of dollars in debt back then. Can anyone imagine the country paying 18-20% interest on the trillions of dollars of debt that have to be issued to fund budget deficits and roll over expiring debt?

What sort of sacrifices would people have to make to service mortgages charging 8% interest? When I took out my first mortgage there were some nice teaser rates but part of the process was making sure I could keep up payments when the teaser rate expired and the variable rate kicked in. At the time it was 6.49%, and another part of the discussion was affordability if rates went up further from there. Now we've had rates so low for so long the housing market has boomed to soak up the free money, so a return to more sensible rates would mean the housing market would have to go into decline, which leaves people spending less money because they don't feel so wealthy, and so the cycle has another way to start.

 

[Lees]

Recession is the least of this countries problem and what it is headed for.

Lees

 

[Lamb]

It appears we're in a "technical recession" even though the government in charge is redefining the term recession. Looks like Build Back Better has failed. I'm hoping things change this fall and that we can get new people in office to help turn things around. This current administration is not fit to represent the American people.

 

[tango]

It appears we're in a "technical recession" even though the government in charge is redefining the term recession. Looks like Build Back Better has failed. I'm hoping things change this fall and that we can get new people in office to help turn things around. This current administration is not fit to represent the American people.

Yep, "Build Back Better" brought to you by the people who never built anything. Perhaps we could use a new political slogan, "leave well alone".

In the real world we live by "if it ain't broke don't fix it". In the political world they figure that if it ain't broke you fix it until it is. Then you present yourselves as having the only solution.

 

[Albion]

It appears we're in a "technical recession" even though the government in charge is redefining the term recession. Looks like Build Back Better has failed. I'm hoping things change this fall and that we can get new people in office to help turn things around. This current administration is not fit to represent the American people.

Not surprisingly, there's an effort being made now to come up with a new definition of "recession," but according to the established one, we're already in a recession as of the beginning of July.

It's “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Put more succinctly, that's two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

 

[tango]

Not surprisingly, there's an effort being made now to come up with a new definition of "recession," but according to the established one, we're already in a recession as of the beginning of July.

It's “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” Put more succinctly, that's two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.

But, but, but, we can't be in a recession. Dopey Joe said so himself. Surely he wouldn't be confused?

 

[Bluezone777]

It's not surprising that they are now "solving" problems by redefining words. Once you saw people fit to redefine something as basic as what a woman is, you should have known any and every word will be redefined when current definitions become inconvenient. How long will it be before they start writing dictionaries in pencil instead of ink?

 

[tango]

It's not surprising that they are now "solving" problems by redefining words. Once you saw people fit to redefine something as basic as what a woman is, you should have known any and every word will be redefined when current definitions become inconvenient. How long will it be before they start writing dictionaries in pencil instead of ink?

Ooh! Ooh! Pick me!

I'm going to define "approval rating" as being all the people who think the president is doing a good job, plus all the people who would think he was doing a good job if only they weren't so stupid as to think he's doing anything less, plus a fudge factor seasonal adjustment in case the numbers are too low.

Oh looky, Dopey Joe has a 126% approval rating.

 

[Josiah]

Liberal approach:

Need to avoid reality? Change the meaning of the words. "Recession?" "Any economic factor that happens when the Republicans are in charge."



.

 

[tango]

Liberal approach:

Need to avoid reality? Change the meaning of the words. "Recession?" "Any economic factor that happens when the Republicans are in charge."



.

Or, if it happens when the Democrats are in charge, it's because of the reckless economic policies of the previous Republican administration. Doesn't matter how long ago it was.