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I've never been involved in a parish that had a "split"....
But it seems the great majority of parishes are either "flat" or declining in membership/involvement. Many parts of California are Christian "ghost towns" with far more closed or now tiny churches than the many, vital, growing churches that was the norm 30+ years ago. There are MANY closed schools (the decline seems to have "hit" schools even more than churches). -HERE, it is obvious the secular/non-churched culture is winning fast and organized Christianity is in fast decline. It's obvious and undeniable. There are a FEW huge, new, non-denoms that seem to "buck" this but they by no means "make up" for the declining and closing churches... they get a lot of attention but are simply a huge exception. And (truth be known) they have HUGE losses each year, they just gain more than they loose, the "turn around" is enormous.
My own previous church (Catholic) founded in the early 60's still is large (I don't know if it was once larger but it's been "flat" for a long time now) BUT a huge paradigm shift has happened: once it was a European based church with lots of Catholics of German, Italian, Polish and Irish backgrounds.... many donating generously in terms of time and money and including the church in their wills so that until recently the parish had no debt. But in the past 20 years, it has transitioned to a mostly hispanic church of a much lower economic class. This has resulted in a lot of cuts to things simply to make the budget balance and the church had to borrow all the money for a major refurbishing that was required to the facilities - the mortgage for that meaning more cuts. As long as Hispanics join as fast as the German/Polish/Italian members die off - attendance is "flat" but we're already seeing that decline.
My own Lutheran parish is TINY (we worship in the 50's and 60's).... and we're very flat. We'll gain 10 members in a year, and loose 10 in a year (some by death, some by moving away, some by joining a couple of HUGE non-denom mega churches in town). Our converts INTO the church tend to be almost exclusively Catholics (last year, ALL the new members were former Catholics) but there are exceptions (my wife being a former Reformed Christian). What seems to attract people is the theology and the strong "family" and caring sense in the parish. What takes people away is that we offer few programs and don't have much of a youth group: We lose people to a couple of huge non-denoms that have HUNDREDS of programs for men, women, kids, teens - theatre companies, sports of every kind, singles groups, senior groups, men groups, lots of "how to" classes and worship that some think their kids will prefer.
- Josiah
When I worked at a very small church like you are describing we lost members to a nearby town because we couldn't offer all the programs and services that a larger church would. It is like Wal-Mart competing with a mom and pop store. The mom and pop store has one advantage though, they know your name there and they notice when you don't come. the larger church won't notice for the most part unless the person is a part of a small group of some kind. I think that is why many pastors in large churches are stressing groups. Because they know they can't possibly get to know all the members or their needs.